J. Sanders

Wageningen University, Netherlands

^* Corresponding author: job.sanders@wur.nl

Introduction

Sustainable coastal development in tourism-dependent regions requires balancing economic growth with the protection of coastal ecosystems. Across small island contexts, tourism relies strongly on environmental quality, while coastal areas face increasing land-use intensification, infrastructure expansion, and water quality pressures. Although clear waters and biodiversity enhance visitor experience, these relationships are rarely quantified in a spatially explicit manner. Ecological studies typically document changes in mangrove extent, reef condition, or turbidity, whereas tourism valuation studies estimate economic value at aggregate levels. However, coastal planning decisions are inherently spatial, and ecosystem degradation is spatially heterogeneous. Without spatially explicit economic information, trade-offs between development and ecosystem protection are assessed without a clear understanding of associated welfare implications.

An additional complexity is that visitor-valued attributes such as biodiversity and water clarity are shaped by interconnected ecosystems; regulating systems such as mangroves influence nearshore recreational conditions indirectly. Stated-preference methods provide willingness-to-pay estimates but are usually not location-specific, while remote sensing provides spatial indicators without economic interpretation. 

This study designs and applies an integrated framework in Curaçao to translate spatial ecosystem variation into location-specific recreational welfare differences.

Objective and Methods

This study designs and applies an integrated spatial valuation framework to quantify how variation in coastal ecosystem condition influences recreational value, using Curaçao as a case study. Visitor preferences for key environmental attributes were estimated through a discrete choice experiment, in which respondents evaluated hypothetical coastal recreation scenarios characterised by water clarity, biodiversity context, and price. Choice data were analysed using conditional logit and mixed logit models to derive marginal willingness-to-pay estimates.

Spatial proxies of ecosystem condition were derived from remote sensing and global spatial datasets. Sentinel-2 imagery was used to estimate water clarity via an NDTI-based turbidity index and to assess mangrove condition using spectral vegetation and moisture indices. Coastal development pressure was quantified using built-up datasets and spatial buffers around predefined areas of interest.

Preference estimates and ecological indicators were integrated within a valuation framework. Principal Component Analysis was applied to examine cross-indicator structure, and an Environmental Quality Index was constructed to synthesise ecosystem condition proxies. This integration generated spatially explicit recreational welfare estimates and enabled analysis of spatial heterogeneity and temporal dynamics (2019–2025).

Results

Results indicate that visitors assign positive value to improvements in coastal ecosystem condition. Biodiversity context contributed more strongly to recreational welfare than water clarity, reflected in higher marginal willingness-to-pay estimates. While water clarity was valued, its relative importance was lower compared to biodiversity-related attributes.

Spatial analysis revealed substantial heterogeneity in ecosystem condition and development pressure across Curaçao’s coastal areas of interest. Areas characterised by favourable combinations of ecological indicators corresponded with higher implied recreational welfare, whereas locations with lower ecosystem quality and higher development pressure showed reduced welfare estimates. 

Cross-indicator analysis using Principal Component Analysis showed limited evidence of strong monotonic relationships among indicators, suggesting that different dimensions of ecosystem condition varied largely independently rather than forming a single consistent gradient of degradation or improvement.

Temporal analysis over 2019–2025 indicated modest island-wide changes in ecological proxies, alongside pronounced site-specific dynamics. These patterns highlight the importance of spatial context when interpreting ecosystem condition and associated recreational values.

Overall, the integrated valuation framework successfully translated ecological variation into spatially explicit welfare estimates, demonstrating its potential to support coastal planning and ecosystem management.