I. Benito Lazaro1*, S. Muis1,2, P. Ward1, D. Eilander1,2, J. Aerts1,2
1 Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Flood risk in coastal areas is projected to increase with climate change, affecting more coastal communities and their economies (Hinkel et al., 2014; Vousdoukas et al., 2016). An accurate estimation of risk is essential to reduce the potential impact of extreme flood events. Recent studies have focused on improving the simulation of extreme sea levels at large scales (Muis et al., 2016; Vousdoukas et al., 2016). However, the inundation mapping derived from those water levels is usually done using simple static approaches that can lead to an overestimation of flood extents (Hinkel et al., 2021; Vousdoukas et al., 2016). This research provides a step forward towards global-scale modeling of coastal inundation due to tropical cyclone events. We are developing a model framework to rapidly and realistically simulate flood hazard in any coastal region. The framework will incorporate three main improvements compared to previous approaches: (1) use of a multi-scale modelling approach that allows for the use of global models and datasets for local flood hazard assessments at high-resolution; (2) move from simple static inundation models towards more physically-based approaches; and (3) move from homogeneous return periods towards event-based modeling. For this purpose, we use the Oceanographic Multipurpose Software Environment which enables model coupling across different spatial scales and physics. Refined local models are nested in the Global Tide and Surge Model for a better representation of the extreme sea levels driven by tropical cyclones. Next, we will combine the water levels with SFINCS and the Synthetic Tropical cyclOne geneRation Model (STORM) to map inundation for a large number of tropical cyclone events. Here we will present the validation of the framework for two historical coastal flooding events.
Hinkel, J., Feyen, L., Hemer, M., Le Cozannet, G., Lincke, D., Marcos, M., Mentaschi, L., Merkens, J. L., de Moel, H., Muis, S., Nicholls, R. J., Vafeidis, A. T., van de Wal, R. S. W., Vousdoukas, M. I., Wahl, T., Ward, P. J., & Wolff, C. (2021). Uncertainty and Bias in Global to Regional Scale Assessments of Current and Future Coastal Flood Risk. Earth's Future, 9(7), 1–28. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001882
Hinkel, J., Lincke, D., Vafeidis, A. T., Perrette, M., Nicholls, R. J., Tol, R. S. J., Marzeion, B., Fettweis, X., Ionescu, C., & Levermann, A. (2014). Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 111(9), 3292–3297. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222469111
Muis, S., Verlaan, M., Winsemius, H. C., Aerts, J. C. J. H., & Ward, P. J. (2016). A global reanalysis of storm surges and extreme sea levels. Nature Communications, 7(May). https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms11969
Vousdoukas, M. I., Voukouvalas, E., Mentaschi, L., Dottori, F., Giardino, A., Bouziotas, D., Bianchi, A., Salamon, P., & Feyen, L. (2016). Developments in large-scale coastal flood hazard mapping. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 16(8), 1841–1853. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1841-2016